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Empirical Investigation into the Determinants of Foreign Aid in Sahel Countries: A Panel Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

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  • Nimonka Bayale

Abstract

This paper introduces model uncertainty into the empirical study on the determinants of foreign aid at the regional level. This is done by adopting a panel Bayesian model averaging approach applied on the data of 10 Sahel countries spanning from 1985 to 2017. Our results suggest that, among the regressors considered, those reflecting trade stakes including arm imports, institutional conditions and socioeconomic prospects tend to receive high posterior inclusion probabilities. These findings are robust to changes in the model specification and sample composition and are not meaningfully affected by the linear panel data model applied. The results highlight three concerns that justify aid flows towards Sahel countries: (i) interest of donors (self-interest), (ii) recipient economic needs and (iii) security purposes. The paper recommends Sahel countries to strengthen international cooperation for security and peace in compliance with the 13th goal of the Agenda 2063 of the African Union.

Suggested Citation

  • Nimonka Bayale, 2022. "Empirical Investigation into the Determinants of Foreign Aid in Sahel Countries: A Panel Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 306-326, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:33:y:2022:i:3:p:306-326
    DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1827184
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    Cited by:

    1. Gniniguè, Moukpè & Wonyra, Kwami Ossadzifo & Tchagnao, Abdou-Fataou & Bayale, Nimonka, 2023. "Participation of developing countries in global value chains: What role for information and communication technologies?," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(3).
    2. Nimonka Bayale & Babatunde Mohamed Sanny Gado & Niim‐Bénoua Nahum Sambieni & Komla Kuma Esobiyu Tchala, 2024. "Dépenses militaires et croissance économique dans l'UEMOA: une analyse des effets de seuil et des canaux de transmission," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 36(1), pages 41-54, March.

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