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Aid sanctions and constitutional order: the US and France’s responses to military coups in Sub-Saharan Africa and the rise of multipolar competition

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  • Inesta Brunel Lendzoumbou

Abstract

The resurgence of military coups in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) underscores the diminishing effectiveness of aid sanctions as mechanisms for restoring constitutional order. This article develops a power-­competition framework to examine how sanctions operate within the intersecting pressures of domestic politics, regional enforcement, and geopolitical dynamics. Drawing on an original dataset of 35 coups across 19 SSA states (1990–2023) and case studies of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, it argues that sanctions’ impact depends on three key factors: (1) the junta’s ability to maintain elite cohesion and public legitimacy, (2) the degree of alignment between Western donors and regional organisations, and (3) the availability of alternative external support, particularly from China and Russia. While the US enforces sanctions more consistently (83% of cases), France’s selective application (40%) reflects how strategic interests often override democratic conditionality. Sanctions are most effective when domestic opposition aligns with regional enforcement and when geopolitical alternatives are limited. Conversely, they fail when juntas exploit donor fragmentation or secure Russian military backing and Chinese economic partnerships. These findings illustrate how great power competition and inconsistent anti-coup enforcement shape the strategic calculations of military regimes, ultimately undermining democracy promotion in a multipolar order.

Suggested Citation

  • Inesta Brunel Lendzoumbou, 2025. "Aid sanctions and constitutional order: the US and France’s responses to military coups in Sub-Saharan Africa and the rise of multipolar competition," Third World Quarterly, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(9), pages 987-1012, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:ctwqxx:v:46:y:2025:i:9:p:987-1012
    DOI: 10.1080/01436597.2025.2526063
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