The Ethiopia–Eritrea rapprochement: highly personalised and less-institutionalised initiative

Once a unified state, Ethiopia and Eritrea experienced a catastrophic war. Although deep-rooted economic and political conditions were at work in the background, issues of an improperly demarcated border triggered the 1998–2000 war. During the outbreak both Ethiopia and Eritrea were already emerging from another war. As a result, tens of thousands died, and millions were displaced. The intervention of the international community averted the war. The Organization of African Unity arbitrated the matter, supported by the United Nations, the European Union and the United States. However, disagreement over the implementation of the technical arrangements of the arbitration obstructed the full-scale implementation of the arbitration – leading to a period of ‘no peace, no war’. Both maintained an adamant position, and resuming relations appears impossible unless a change of government takes place. Fortunately, a wave of civil resistance rocked Ethiopia from 2015 to 2018, resulting in national reform in mid-February 2018. This opened the initiative for the resumption of relations. This paper discusses the conditions contributing to the renewal of the Ethiopian–Eritrean ties and the steps taken by both to revise their foreign policy directions that had them in a deadlock for decades. It also identifies risk factors bottlenecking the full-scale normalisation of the rapprochement.