IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

A modified storey enclosure model

Listed author(s):
  • Franco Cheung
  • Martin Skitmore
Registered author(s):

    James' Storey Enclosure Method (JSEM), developed in 1954, is considered by many to be the most sophisticated single-rate method ever devised for early-design-stage tender price forecasts. However, the method is seldom used in practice partly because it has been superseded by multi-rate methods (such as the elemental method) and partly due to the arbitrary nature of the weightings prescribed for its use. The approach has been further developed and empirical values of the weightings are derived by multivariate regression analysis. A set of 50 completed Hong Kong private housing projects is used to demonstrate the use of the technique. This involves, firstly, the modification of the variables used in the original JSEM to incorporate the special characteristics of Hong Kong multi-storey residential buildings. This results in what is termed here as a Modified James' Storey Enclosure Model (MJSEM). Next, the optimal number of variables for inclusion in the model is identified by means of a dual stepwise cross validation regression procedure - resulting in a Regressed Modified Model for James' Storey Enclosure Method (RMJSEM). In addition, using an amended version of MJSEM, the dual stepwise cross validation regression is used to produce a Regressed Modified Model for Amended Storey Enclosure Method (RMASEM). The forecasting accuracy of RMJSEM and RMASEM is then compared with that of MJSEM together with the floor area and cube method to provide an indication of the improvement achieved. It is shown that the RMASEM provides significantly more consistent forecasts than the MJSEM and floor area models, leading to the conclusion that RMASEM may be the best model.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01446190500435093
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Construction Management and Economics.

    Volume (Year): 24 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 391-405

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:taf:conmgt:v:24:y:2006:i:4:p:391-405
    DOI: 10.1080/01446190500435093
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RCME20

    Order Information: Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RCME20

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:conmgt:v:24:y:2006:i:4:p:391-405. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.