Challenges and pathways to inclusive low-carbon development in South Africa: a political settlements analysis

Over the course of the twentieth century South Africa developed a highly energy- and capital-intensive industrial structure that has underpinned a high-emissions, low-employment development pathway. While post-apartheid industrial and climate policies have been introduced to shift the country towards more inclusive low-carbon development, the effective implementation of these policies has been limited. This article draws on Mushtaq Khan’s political settlements framework to analyse the political economy dynamics that have constrained policy implementation and explores pathways to more inclusive and sustainable development. The analysis shows how the post-apartheid government inherited a power configuration and supporting set of institutions that has constrained effective policy implementation. We argue that in order to achieve a successful transition, policymakers need to consider the distributional impacts of their policies in light of the underlying political settlement and sequence their interventions accordingly. Following from this, a case is made for a green industrial policy that builds supportive coalitions around a just transition, gradually shifting the balance of power towards inclusive decarbonisation.