Iran and post-Assad Syria: strategic dilemmas and constraints

The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime marks a critical geopolitical setback for Iran, dismantling its strategic foothold in Syria and eroding years of political, military, and economic investment. The resulting reconfiguration of power in Damascus has weakened Iran’s influence across the Levant and disrupted its ability to maintain regional networks aligned with the ‘Axis of Resistance.’ In this context, Iranian policymakers face complex strategic choices regarding their engagement in Syria. Some advocate strengthening ties with Alawite and Kurdish factions to counterbalance Türkiye and its regional allies, while others propose pragmatic engagement with emerging Syrian leadership, particularly factions with ideological or strategic interests opposed to Israel and the United States. A more cautious perspective highlights structural constraints on Iran’s capacity to reassert influence, given resistance from regional and global actors, including Türkiye, the United States, and Israel. This article employs a qualitative methodology, drawing on publicly available media sources and interviews with Iranian political science scholars specialising in Iran–Syria relations. By examining the recalibration of Iranian strategy in post-Assad Syria, the study evaluates the feasibility of alternative policy options and their broader implications for regional security, power dynamics, and the sustainability of Iran’s strategic posture.