Assessing the Diffusion of Military Power Capacity of Middle Powers: The Case of Turkey

Great powers’ military power diffusion (MPD) is superior to Middle Powers (M.P.) in technology acquisition, military innovation, and state & financial capacity. However, M.P.s have started to enhance their MPD thanks to their growing impact on international politics. In this vein, this paper aims to offer an alternative explanation of MPD by introducing a novel theoretical framework, Military Power Diffusion Capacity (hereafter MPDC), to assess how M.P.s’ MPD influences the balance of power and warfare at both regional and international levels. In doing so, this article is structured into three sections. First, we investigate the existing theoretical frameworks on military power diffusion and the spread of military power by middle-ranking states. Second, we examine the historical evolution of Turkey’s defence industry. Third, we introduce our MPDC framework and test it to the Turkey’s case. Here, we propose a five-layered MPDC framework based on the following determining factors: 1) Sustainable Financial & State Capacity, 2) Geopolitical and strategic rivalries, 3) Domestic conditions, 4) Civil-Military bargaining levels, and 5) regional and global power status-driven aspirations. Then, we scrutinize Turkey’s MPDC since the 1990s within our five-layered framework to assess the implications of its MPD on the changing international security environment.