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Eve of Disruption: Decarbonisation and the Changing Salience of Oil in Petrostate Conflicts

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  • Sascha Nanlohy

Abstract

As the world transitions away from oil, the future for petrostates is uncertain. This article makes two arguments: first, petrostates may become aggressive in existing conflicts to take advantage of economic and military asymmetries; second, oil may be losing its strategic salience. Analysing the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, I illustrate the changing role of oil between the first and second Karabakh wars, positing that uncertainty over a post-oil future affected Azerbaijan’s behaviour in 2020, incentivising aggressive military action without being a driver of external actor dynamics. I validate this case with analysis of the Essequibo conflict between Venezuela and Guyana.

Suggested Citation

  • Sascha Nanlohy, 2026. "Eve of Disruption: Decarbonisation and the Changing Salience of Oil in Petrostate Conflicts," Europe-Asia Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 78(2), pages 214-239, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ceasxx:v:78:y:2026:i:2:p:214-239
    DOI: 10.1080/09668136.2026.2618024
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