Exploring the limitations of the UAE’s hard power

This research investigates why the United Arab Emirates, despite substantial defence expenditures, cannot achieve and project sustainable autonomous hard power. Employing a small state theoretical framework and qualitative methodology, our analysis reveals three fundamental barriers constraining the UAE's military independence. First, demographic limitations force reliance on expatriate military personnel, compromising unit cohesion and loyalty while creating operational vulnerabilities. Second, technological shortcomings necessitate continued dependence on foreign weapons systems, training programmes, and expertise, undermining strategic autonomy. Third, regional positioning between Iran and Saudi Arabia generates security dilemmas that restrict hard power projection and escalate threat perceptions. The study demonstrates that small states might acquire impressive military arsenals through financial investment, yet structural constraints prevent the development of indigenous hard power that would provide genuine military effectiveness. These findings advance small state theory by revealing how population size, technological dependency, and geographic location interact to limit the creation and projection of autonomous hard power.