Fragile safeguards: insider threats, jihadist intent, and the vulnerabilities of Pakistan’s nuclear security

This paper investigates the evolving threats to Pakistan’s nuclear security, focusing on the insider-jihadist nexus, and structural vulnerabilities within the country’s nuclear decision-making. Applying the threat assessment model developed by Ackerman et al., this study evaluates adversarial threats and vulnerabilities, particularly within the command-and-control structures governing tactical nuclear weapons. A 2 × 2 matrix is introduced to predict the risk to nuclear assets, emphasising the interaction between nuclear vulnerabilities and adversarial capabilities. Through analysis of two cases of adversarial attacks on Pakistan’s defence establishment, the paper highlights how insider collaboration significantly amplifies the risk of breaches in nuclear security. Highlighting the recurring patterns of radicalisation within the military and the challenges posed by its decentralised command structures, this paper concludes that whilst Pakistan has made some strides in improving physical security, the insider-jihadist nexus remains a persistent risk. By understanding these vulnerabilities, the study offers insights for strengthening nuclear security frameworks.