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The Fall Crisis of 2022: why did Russia not use nuclear arms?

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  • Ulrich Kühn

Abstract

Back in the fall of 2022, parts of the US administration assessed a heightened risk of Russian nuclear use in the Ukraine War. Despite this assessment, nuclear weapons were not used. Why did Russia not use nuclear weapons during the Fall Crisis of 2022? This essay offers a systematic review of the most influential rationalist, normative, and institutionalist theories of non-use and discusses whether they can explain the practices seen throughout 2022 in the war. It concludes that in lieu of verifiable evidence, currently all major theories of non-use can to some degree explain these practices, with theories centred on nuclear deterrence and an international taboo norm sticking out. Using the case study at hand, a multicausal model of nuclear non-use, with an emphasis on nuclear use prevention, will be presented as a possible blueprint for dealing with future nuclear crises.

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  • Ulrich Kühn, 2025. "The Fall Crisis of 2022: why did Russia not use nuclear arms?," Defense & Security Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 280-300, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:cdanxx:v:41:y:2025:i:2:p:280-300
    DOI: 10.1080/14751798.2024.2442794
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