Vulnerable but Resilient: Indonesia in an Age of Democratic Decline

Recent years have seen a consensus emerging that Indonesian democracy is in regression. Nonetheless, there continue to be developments that point towards Indonesia’s democratic resilience. This article examines key events of the past year that support resilience, including the passing of the landmark Law on Sexual Violence, the rejection of rumoured plans to extend President Joko Widodo’s term in office and a moderation of polarisation. At the same time, Indonesian democracy remains vulnerable, illustrated by legal developments that undermine executive accountability, ongoing militarisation in Papua, as well as persistent pressure in areas of freedom of expression and minority rights. The article will conclude with an examination of Jokowi’s efforts to secure his presidential legacy, particularly through infrastructure development and foreign policy. The article identifies two sources for democratic resilience—public opinion and elite support—and argues that while democratic decline continues, the process of regression is more uneven than commonly emphasised in assessments of Indonesian politics.