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The role of cash flow volatility in capital structure dynamics

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  • Shengke Dong
  • Yuexiang Jiang

Abstract

Understanding the variation in leverage is important in corporate finance, but what we know remains limited. This study identifies cash flow volatility (CFV) as a key driver of the variation. Empirical results show a cointegration relationship at an annual level, and a leading role in cross-sectional regression. The conclusion remains robust after considering potential endogeneity issues. Heterogeneity analyses show that the degree of the positive impact of CFV on leverage variation is affected by factors such as company size and tax policies. Importantly, a new perspective for understanding leverage variation is proposed and examined, which belongs to statistical estimation issues rather than economic forces. This mechanism contributes to developing the trade-off model for explaining leverage variation, and showing the cause of leverage variation. Moreover, this study further finds that firms with higher CFV show higher leverage adjustment speed, which is consistent with the proposed mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Shengke Dong & Yuexiang Jiang, 2026. "The role of cash flow volatility in capital structure dynamics," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(7), pages 1294-1306, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:58:y:2026:i:7:p:1294-1306
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2025.2465841
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