Start a business or get a job? Rethinking the impacts of e-commerce on household income in China

Based on nationally representative survey data from China, this study empirically analyzes the impact of the National Rural E-Commerce Comprehensive Demonstration Project (RECD) on household income and welfare using the difference-in-differences (DID) method. The findings indicate that the policy significantly increases household net income by 8.3%, representing an average increase of 3,980 yuan compared to pre-policy levels. Notably, the income growth is primarily driven by employment rather than entrepreneurship. The results show an increase in household wage income, with individuals more likely to engage in hired and non-agricultural work. Furthermore, our analysis of business registration data reveals that counties with a greater expansion in agricultural cooperatives experience stronger policy effects on household wage incomes. The RECD policy also helps narrow the digital divide, particularly for households with limited information access and lower income. Meanwhile, individuals with higher educational attainment, men, and rural residents experience larger income gains, whereas women see greater improvements in job stability. Resident welfare also improves due to increased consumption. These findings provide new evidence for the impacts and mechanisms of information poverty alleviation in developing countries.