Maritime connectivity, infrastructure quality, shipping trade, and economic growth: a panel threshold ARDL for ASEAN countries

This paper aims to investigate the nonlinear relationships between maritime developments and economic growth in ASEAN countries, with a particular focus on identifying threshold points that influence this relationship. By employing a panel threshold autoregressive distributed lag model, the study examines three primary maritime development dimensions: Connectivity, Infrastructure Quality, and Shipping Trade. The long-run findings show that connectivity and trade volumes above certain thresholds (44.283 and 785,000 TEUs per year, respectively) significantly boost economic growth, whereas growth impacts are limited when these thresholds are not met. In terms of port infrastructure quality, the study finds that while positive effects are significant in the low regime, the benefits taper off once the quality score surpasses 4.26 out of 7. Short-term results indicate that these maritime variables, by themselves, do not serve as strong drivers of immediate growth, likely due to structural and institutional factors that limit rapid returns. Our findings lead to several policy implications for fostering sustainable marine economic development and maximizing the long-term benefits of maritime development.