Identification and causal analysis of the influence channels of digital transformation of manufacturing on CO2 emissions

To realize the coordinated development of greening and digitization of manufacturing sector, it is crucial to clarify the carbon reduction effect of digital transformation of manufacturing (DITM). From a micro perspective to a macro perspective, this paper explores the impact of the DITM of China on carbon emissions, dynamically explores the five influence channels of industrialization, economic growth, energy consumption structure, foreign trade and technological innovation, and identifies the causal relationship between them. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2012 to 2021, the fixed effect model, partial linear function coefficient panel model and causality test are adopted. we find that the inverse U-shaped relationship between the DITM and CO2 emissions, and the three influencing channels of economic growth, technological innovation and foreign trade have a complex impact on carbon emissions. The other two influence channels have a weaker role. The causal relationship between these five influence channels is further explored. We suggest that we should build a supporting system for digital transformation, formulate differentiated development policies, and innovate data centre energy use models in the process of digital development.