IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v58y2026i24p4680-4696.html

Stable expectations and housing prices: quasi-experimental evidence from the promulgation of China’s Civil Code

Author

Listed:
  • Zhen Xu
  • Xian Zheng
  • Xiaoyuan Zou

Abstract

This study exploits the promulgation of China’s Civil Code as a quasi-experiment to examine how stable expectations influence housing prices. Using a regression discontinuity-in-time approach on detailed transaction data (May 2017–December 2022), we document a significant price appreciation of roughly 2.74% for residential properties post-policy. These findings hold under various robustness checks. We also observe a marked decline in time on the market, indicating enhanced liquidity. Further analyses reveal that older resale units benefit disproportionately from improved market confidence, mainly through reduced liquidity risk. Overall, the evidence highlights the crucial role of stable expectations and liquidity in shaping housing values.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhen Xu & Xian Zheng & Xiaoyuan Zou, 2026. "Stable expectations and housing prices: quasi-experimental evidence from the promulgation of China’s Civil Code," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(24), pages 4680-4696, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:58:y:2026:i:24:p:4680-4696
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2025.2499744
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00036846.2025.2499744
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036846.2025.2499744?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:58:y:2026:i:24:p:4680-4696. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.