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Employee tenure and macroeconomic conditions

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  • Charles L. Baum

Abstract

This analysis examines the effects of macroeconomic conditions on worker tenure using econometric hazard rates to model the annual probability that workers separate from (or leave) their employer. The models are estimated using longitudinal data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth on the weekly employment experiences of an older cohort of individuals born between 1957 and 1964 and surveyed from 1979 to 2019 and a younger cohort of individuals born between 1980 and 1984 and surveyed from 1997 to 2019. This analysis is one of the first to examine completed employment spells. Most tenures are short. Good economic conditions decrease the likelihood of leaving an employer in the first year or two on a job but increase the probability of leaving during subsequent years of tenure.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles L. Baum, 2025. "Employee tenure and macroeconomic conditions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(59), pages 10611-10628, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:57:y:2025:i:59:p:10611-10628
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2024.2439063
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