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Do disaggregated oil price shocks drive the Chinese non-ferrous metal market across different time horizons and quantiles?

Author

Listed:
  • Yinghua Ren
  • Jiahui Yang
  • Wanming Ying
  • Yawei Guo

Abstract

This study uses a wavelet-based quantile approach to document the effects of disaggregated oil shocks on the Chinese non-ferrous metal market under various time horizons and quantiles. Oil shocks are decomposed into supply, aggregate demand, and oil-specific demand shocks based on a structural vector autoregressive model. Empirical results suggest that oil shocks have notable impacts on the Chinese non-ferrous metal market in the middle and long term, whereas the impacts in the short term are not significant. The impacts remain remarkably heterogeneous across quantile levels in the long term. Oil supply shocks significantly affect the non-ferrous metal market positively, but only at higher quantiles. The positive effect of aggregate demand shocks and the negative effect of oil-specific demand shocks are significant at lower quantiles. Moreover, copper is susceptible to oil shocks, compared with aluminium. These findings provide several implications for policymakers and investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Yinghua Ren & Jiahui Yang & Wanming Ying & Yawei Guo, 2025. "Do disaggregated oil price shocks drive the Chinese non-ferrous metal market across different time horizons and quantiles?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(59), pages 10552-10572, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:57:y:2025:i:59:p:10552-10572
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2024.2433192
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