Navigating investment risks mode and transmission: a study of China’s participation in the Belt and Road Initiative through the lens of risk society

The world is experiencing a period of heightened complexity and uncertainty, where risks are interconnected and extend beyond traditional boundaries. This paper delves into the effective identification of investment risks for China’s involvement in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), utilizing methodologies rooted in complex networks and Minimum Spanning Tree. It establishes an indicator system for foreign direct investment (FDI) risks across four dimensions: economic, political, social, and bilateral relations, while also developing a risk identification model grounded in complex network theory. The empirical analysis draws from data spanning 2010 to 2019, encompassing 103 co-building countries of the BRI. Key findings include: (1) Political risk emerges as pivotal when Chinese enterprises invest in co-building countries of the BRI. (2) Examining individual country investment risks reveals an increased transmissibility of China’s FDI risks. Notably, Indonesia, Brazil, and Bangladesh showcase internally complex investment risk environments. (3) Analysis of investment risks between countries and regions indicates a rise in risk transmission paths since 2010. Particularly, the South Asian region stands out for harbouring the longest transmission path. This study advances theoretical and empirical understanding of effective identification of China’s overseas investment risks, offering valuable insights for the development of global risk society governance.