Comparing two scenarios in the transition towards circular economy in the EU-27. The role of EU waste directives

EU waste Directives have been setting specific environmental targets since the 1990s. National policymakers transpose EU Directives into national laws, taking into account their own preferences and resources in the implementation of national-level waste management plans. Over the last two decades, the European Commission has been aiming to foster the transition towards a circular economy, although the transition is not yet complete. The aim of this study is twofold. First, we model the national policymaker’s choice with respect to the recycling and landfilling targets imposed by EU Directives. Then, we estimate policymaker preferences under two different scenarios, i.e. 1) assuming full waste management efficiency in line with EU Directives (the hypothetical scenario) and 2) looking at actual efficiency based on country-level characteristics (the actual scenario). To estimate policymaker preferences, we implement Structural Equation Modelling, while to obtain actual efficiency, we use Data Envelopment Analysis. Our dataset is drawn from Eurostat and refers to the 2000–2019 period. We look at the time path of policymaker preferences to characterize countries in terms of policy discrepancy and anticipation of EU Directives.