IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v57y2025i31p4506-4522.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How quickly do markets incorporate new information? Evidence from the NCAA men’s basketball betting market

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Hickman
  • Neil Metz

Abstract

Gambling markets for sporting events provide opportunities to examine factors that influence the forecast accuracy of prediction markets in a broader sense. In this study, we use information from the betting market on NCAA men’s basketball contests to analyse the rate at which markets incorporate changing information into pricing. Using data from the 2009 to 2022 seasons, we investigate how turnover in player personnel, coaching, and conference affiliation between seasons impacts the accuracy of betting lines. We find some evidence that coaching changes and, to a lesser extent increased player turnover, lead to decreased accuracy and a greater amount of movement in market lines, but that these effects are generally only evident for the first few weeks of the season.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Hickman & Neil Metz, 2025. "How quickly do markets incorporate new information? Evidence from the NCAA men’s basketball betting market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(31), pages 4506-4522, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:57:y:2025:i:31:p:4506-4522
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2024.2364077
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00036846.2024.2364077
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036846.2024.2364077?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:57:y:2025:i:31:p:4506-4522. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.