Trend prediction of farmers’ spontaneous land transfer behavior: evidence from China

Agricultural land transfer serves as a vital means to achieve economies of scale. This study endeavours to explore the trend of spontaneous arable land transfer and effective incentive strategies for land transfer. An agent-based model is constructed to simulate the dynamic process of land transfer decisions. The model focuses on predicting the proportion of the planting income, proportion of transferred land in total area and the involvement of farmers in land transfer activities within village. The prediction results illustrate a noticeable trend in land transfer, yet there are still opportunities for further advancement. The phenomenon of declining land transfer persists across the eastern, central, and western regions in the long term. The gap in farmer participation rate between central and western China is narrowing, although disparities persist in the proportion of land area transferred. Sensitivity analysis reveals that increasing wages and alternative sources of income, augmenting the likelihood of successful transfers, and reducing smaller farmers’ preference for land represent pivotal factors influencing the pace of land transfer processes.