IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v57y2025i18p2175-2192.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spillover effects from partisan conflict and trade & immigration policy uncertainty to US travel and leisure stocks: a time-frequency analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Wang Gao
  • Linlin Zhang
  • Qingzhu Fan
  • Shixiong Yang

Abstract

This study uses the time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) based connectedness approach to explore the effects of partisan conflict, trade policy uncertainty, and immigration policy uncertainty on the return and volatility of travel and leisure stocks in the US markets. The empirical results show that partisan conflict has the strongest spillover; the trade and immigration policy uncertainties are the spillover transmitters; travel and leisure stocks are the main receivers. In the time-domain, the spillover effect is time-varying, which increases significantly in times of crisis, especially during the COVID-19 and the Russia–Ukraine Conflict. In the frequency-domain, long-term spillover is more significant than short-term spillover. Compared with returns, volatility is more sensitive to uncertainties and has a much more complex spillover path. Among travel and leisure stocks, airline stocks are most vulnerable to uncertainty shocks, whereas gambling stocks are more rigid than other stocks. Our results have important implications for investment decisions, policy-making, and coping with risks arising from uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang Gao & Linlin Zhang & Qingzhu Fan & Shixiong Yang, 2025. "Spillover effects from partisan conflict and trade & immigration policy uncertainty to US travel and leisure stocks: a time-frequency analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(18), pages 2175-2192, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:57:y:2025:i:18:p:2175-2192
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2024.2322581
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00036846.2024.2322581
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036846.2024.2322581?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:57:y:2025:i:18:p:2175-2192. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.