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A structural model of coronavirus behaviour: what do four waves of Covid tell us?

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  • David Meenagh
  • Patrick Minford

Abstract

This paper extends Meenagh and Minford (2021) to the four waves of infection in the UK by end-2021, using the unique newly available sample-based estimates of infections created by the ONS. These allow us to estimate the effects on the Covid hospitalization and fatality rates of vaccination and population immunity due to past infection: the latter was the most significant factor driving both trends, while the vaccination rate also had a significant short-run effect on the fatality rate. We also updated our policy comparison with Sweden for the most recent data, with similar conclusions: lower Swedish lockdown intensity relative to personal response in waves 1 and 2 caused much lower economic costs with no discernible effect on infections.

Suggested Citation

  • David Meenagh & Patrick Minford, 2023. "A structural model of coronavirus behaviour: what do four waves of Covid tell us?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(37), pages 4348-4358, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:55:y:2023:i:37:p:4348-4358
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2022.2128295
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    1. David Meenagh & Patrick Minford, 2021. "A structural model of coronavirus behaviour for testing on data behaviour," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(30), pages 3515-3534, June.
    2. Vo Le & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens & Yongdeng Xu, 2016. "Testing Macro Models by Indirect Inference: A Survey for Users," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-38, February.
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