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UK tourism arrivals and departures: seasonality, persistence and time trends

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  • Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana
  • José L. Ruiz-Alba
  • Raquel Ayestarán

Abstract

Issues such as seasonality, persistence and trends are examined in the series referring to the number of UK arrivals and departures using techniques based on fractional integration. This methodology is much more flexible than others based on integer degrees of differentiation and permits us to describe in a more general way the effects of shocks in the series. Our results indicate that the series display significant time trends; they show high persistence with orders of integration in the fractional range, thus showing long-lasting effects of shocks; seasonality is an important issue, and in removing the seasonality through seasonal differentiation, the time trends disappear though persistence remains as a relevant feature of the data. Policy implications of the results obtained are displayed at the end of the article.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & José L. Ruiz-Alba & Raquel Ayestarán, 2020. "UK tourism arrivals and departures: seasonality, persistence and time trends," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(46), pages 5077-5087, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:52:y:2020:i:46:p:5077-5087
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2020.1752904
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    Cited by:

    1. David Boto-García & José F Baños-Pino, 2023. "Deep habits and travel resilience after COVID-19," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(2), pages 543-550, March.
    2. Luis A Gil-Alana & James E Payne, 2022. "Persistence, seasonality, and fractional integration within a nonlinear framework: Evidence from US citizens’ overseas travel," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(3), pages 654-660, May.
    3. James E Payne & Junsoo Lee, 2024. "Global perspective on the permanent or transitory nature of shocks to tourist arrivals: Evidence from new unit root tests with structural breaks and factors," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(1), pages 67-103, February.

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