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Comparative performances of measures of consumer and economic sentiment in forecasting consumption: a multi-country analysis

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  • Robert Gausden
  • Mohammad S. Hasan

Abstract

This paper seeks to compare the capabilities of assorted measures of consumer and economic sentiment in predicting the growth of household expenditure. An analysis of quarterly data on five European countries shows that for none of these can the model which incorporates the EU’s headline consumer confidence indicator be deemed to be significantly inferior to any of its seven rivals. However, the rankings of the sentiment variables are seen to be influenced by: the proportion of total spending by households that is devoted to durable goods; and the nature of the behaviour of consumption over the forecast interval.

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  • Robert Gausden & Mohammad S. Hasan, 2020. "Comparative performances of measures of consumer and economic sentiment in forecasting consumption: a multi-country analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(10), pages 1088-1104, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:52:y:2020:i:10:p:1088-1104
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2019.1659489
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Gausden & Mohammad Hasan, 2022. "A reappraisal of Katona’s adaptive theory of consumer behaviour using U.K. data," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(2), pages 122-143, March.
    2. Raffaele Mattera & Michelangelo Misuraca & Maria Spano & Germana Scepi, 2023. "Mixed frequency composite indicators for measuring public sentiment in the EU," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 2357-2382, June.

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