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Modelling inbound international tourism demand in small Pacific Island countries

Author

Listed:
  • Nikeel Kumar
  • Ronald Ravinesh Kumar
  • Arvind Patel
  • Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad
  • Peter Josef Stauvermann

Abstract

In this study, we estimate inbound international tourism demand models at the individual source market-destination and overall destination levels for Fiji, Cook Islands, Tonga and Vanuatu from 2002Q1 to 2016Q2 and Samoa from 2002Q4 to 2015Q3. Tourism demand is measured by visitor arrivals, tourism prices, the source country’s real GDP, tourism prices in substitute destinations, seasonality and structural breaks, all of which are considered plausible determinants. The models are estimated using the ARDL-bounds approach, structural breaks are identified using the Bai and Perron break test, and seasonality is tested using the US Census Bureau’s X-13 ARIMA-SEATS methodology. The study is important because it presents new evidence on price, income, and substitute price sensitivity, word of mouth, seasonality, and structural-breaks effects in Pacific island destinations.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikeel Kumar & Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Arvind Patel & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Peter Josef Stauvermann, 2020. "Modelling inbound international tourism demand in small Pacific Island countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(10), pages 1031-1047, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:52:y:2020:i:10:p:1031-1047
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2019.1646887
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kumar, Nikeel Nishkar & Patel, Arvind, 2023. "Nonlinear effect of air travel tourism demand on economic growth in Fiji," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    2. Adrian Mendieta-Aragon & Teresa Garin-Munoz, 2020. "Foreign Tourism in Andalusia: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 24(3), pages 110-141, September.
    3. Amitrajeet A. Batabyal & Seung Jick Yoo, 2020. "A theoretical analysis of preference matching by tourists and destination choice," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 809-820, October.
    4. Nikeel Nishkar Kumar & Arvind Patel & Sean Kimpton & Antony Andrews, 2022. "Asymmetric reactions in the tourism‐led growth hypothesis," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 661-677, December.
    5. Alessandro Severino & Larysa Martseniuk & Salvatore Curto & Larysa Neduzha, 2021. "Routes Planning Models for Railway Transport Systems in Relation to Passengers’ Demand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-27, August.
    6. Yoichi Matsubayashi & Yoshihisa Inada, 2023. "Individual tourist expenditures in Japan during the inbound tourism boom period (2015–2017): Empirical evidence from micro survey data," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 492-518, December.
    7. Nikeel N Kumar & Arvind Patel & Rup Singh, 2022. "Modelling tourism competitiveness in small Pacific island countries," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(3), pages 692-713, May.

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