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Measuring asymmetry and persistence in conditional volatility in real output: evidence from three East Asian tigers using a multivariate GARCH approach

  • Vu Thanh Hai
  • Albert K. Tsui
  • Zhaoyong Zhang

We search for evidence of conditional volatility in the quarterly real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rates of three East Asian tigers: Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan. The widely accepted Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH)-type model is used to capture the existence of asymmetric volatility and the potential structural break points in the volatility. We find evidence of asymmetry and persistence in the volatility of GDP growth rates. It is noted that the structural breakpoints of volatility correspond reasonably well to the historical economic and political events in these economies. Policy implications from our findings are discussed.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00036846.2012.687098
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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 45 (2013)
Issue (Month): 20 (July)
Pages: 2909-2914

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:45:y:2013:i:20:p:2909-2914
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  1. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  2. Allan D. Brunner, 1997. "On The Dynamic Properties Of Asymmetric Models Of Real GNP," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 321-352, May.
  3. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  4. Ho, Kin-Yip & Tsui, Albert K. C., 2003. "Asymmetric volatility of real GDP: some evidence from Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 437-445, December.
  5. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
  6. Ho, Kin Yip & Tsui, Albert K.C., 2004. "Analysis of real GDP growth rates of greater China: An asymmetric conditional volatility approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 424-442.
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