Measuring asymmetry and persistence in conditional volatility in real output: evidence from three East Asian tigers using a multivariate GARCH approach
We search for evidence of conditional volatility in the quarterly real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rates of three East Asian tigers: Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan. The widely accepted Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH)-type model is used to capture the existence of asymmetric volatility and the potential structural break points in the volatility. We find evidence of asymmetry and persistence in the volatility of GDP growth rates. It is noted that the structural breakpoints of volatility correspond reasonably well to the historical economic and political events in these economies. Policy implications from our findings are discussed.
Volume (Year): 45 (2013)
Issue (Month): 20 (July)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAEC20|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ho, Kin-Yip & Tsui, Albert K. C., 2003. "Asymmetric volatility of real GDP: some evidence from Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 437-445, December.
- Allan D. Brunner, 1997.
"On The Dynamic Properties Of Asymmetric Models Of Real GNP,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 321-352, May.
- Allan D. Brunner, 1994. "On the dynamic properties of asymmetric models of real GNP," International Finance Discussion Papers 489, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
- Ho, Kin Yip & Tsui, Albert K.C., 2004. "Analysis of real GDP growth rates of greater China: An asymmetric conditional volatility approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 424-442.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:45:y:2013:i:20:p:2909-2914. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.