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The bounds test approach for cointegration and causality between financial development, international trade and economic growth: the case of Cyprus


  • Hatice Pehlivan Jenkıns
  • Salih Turan Katırcıoglu


This study employs the bounds test for co-integration and Granger causality tests to investigate the long-run equilibrium relationship and the direction of causality between financial development, international trade and real income growth for the Cyprus economy. The results of the study reveal that financial development as measured by broad money (M2), international trade and real income growth are cointegrated; thus, a long-run equilibrium relationship can be inferred among these three variables. On the other hand, Granger causality test results suggest that in Cyprus the growth in real income stimulates the growth of international trade (both exports and imports) and the growth of money supply. Furthermore, growth in imports of goods and services also stimulates a growth in exports of goods and services of Cyprus. Although this result contradicts our initial expectations, it indicates the importance of capital inflows in Cyprus that plays a major role in financing the investments mainly in the tourism sector. As a final point, the results of this study reveal that the supply-leading, export-led growth and import-led growth hypotheses are not confirmed by this study whereas the demand-following hypothesis can be justified for the Cypriot economy when M2 measure of money supply is under consideration.

Suggested Citation

  • Hatice Pehlivan Jenkıns & Salih Turan Katırcıoglu, 2010. "The bounds test approach for cointegration and causality between financial development, international trade and economic growth: the case of Cyprus," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(13), pages 1699-1707.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:42:y:2010:i:13:p:1699-1707
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840701721661

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    1. Radi M. Adayleh, 2018. "Does Finance – Led Growth Hypothesis Hold in Jordanian Economy? An Empirical Analysis," International Review of Management and Marketing, Econjournals, vol. 8(1), pages 45-54.
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    3. Ä°mre ERSOY, 2011. "On Reserve Hoarding In Emes: The Case Of Turkey," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 6(3(17)/ Fa), pages 230-243.
    4. Al-Abdul Razag Bashier, 2015. "Economic Growth and Financial Development in Jordan: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," Journal of Empirical Economics, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 4(5), pages 270-284.
    5. Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2012. "Does trade openness affect long run growth? Cointegration, causality and forecast error variance decomposition tests for Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2325-2339.
    6. Phouphet KYOPHILAVONG & Gazi Salah Uddin & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2014. "The Nexus Between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Laos," Working Papers 2014-447, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    7. Tekilu Tadesse & Jemal Abafia, 2019. "The causality between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Ethiopia: Supply Leading vs Demand Following Hypothesis," Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, Tripal Publishing House, vol. 3(1), pages 87-115.
    8. Shaheen, Safana & Awan, Masood Sarwar & Waqas, Muhammad & Aslam, Muhammad Amir, 2011. "Financial Development, International Trade and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 32876, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    10. Nahed Zghidi & Zouheir Abida, 2014. "Financial Development, Trade Openness and Economic Growth in North African Countries," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 17(53), pages 91-120, September.
    11. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chen, Mei-Ping & Chang, Chi-Hung, 2014. "Industry co-movement and cross-listing: Do home country factors matter?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 96-110.
    12. Olabanji Olukayode Ewetan & Henry Okodua, 2013. "Is There A Link Between Financial Sector Development And Economic Growth In Nigeria?," International Journal of Financial Economics, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 108-118.
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    14. Wajahat Ali & Azrai Abdullah & Muhammad Azam, 2016. "The Dynamic Linkage between Technological Innovation and carbon dioxide emissions in Malaysia: An Autoregressive Distributed Lagged Bound Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 389-400.
    15. Muhammad, Shahbaz & Mohammad, Mafizur Rahman & Abdul, Farooq, 2012. "Financial Development, International Trade and Economic Growth in Australia:New Evidence from Multivariate Framework Analysis," MPRA Paper 42023, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Oct 2012.
    16. Sulaiman, Saidu & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Is liberalizing finance the game in town for Nigeria ?," MPRA Paper 95569, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Abla El Khawaga & Mona Esam & Rasha Hammam, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Rates: An Empirical Investigation of International Fisher Effect Theory The Case of Egypt (2003-2012)," Working Papers 869, Economic Research Forum, revised Nov 2014.
    18. Chaido Dritsaki & Pavlos Stamatiou, 2019. "Investigating the Impact of Market Openness on Economic Growth for Poland: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(6), pages 123-131.

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