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Efficiency and formation of expectations: evidence from the European investment survey

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  • Konstantinos Drakos

Abstract

The European Commission conducts an annual survey regarding planned and realized business fixed investment across various manufacturing sectors in Euroland. In this study we investigate the predictive content of survey-based expectations on investment. In addition, we empirically test the rationality of respondents both in a time series as well as in a panel context. According to our results, based on pooling the data, efficiency is rejected since expectations are biased predictors of actual outcomes. Furthermore, expectations revisions are found to be correlated with components of the information set known at the time of decision making. Finally, our results qualify regressive expectations as the mechanism that more adequately describes the formation of expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Konstantinos Drakos, 2008. "Efficiency and formation of expectations: evidence from the European investment survey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(8), pages 1015-1022.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:40:y:2008:i:8:p:1015-1022
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840600771189
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    Cited by:

    1. Anastasiou, Dimitrios, 2020. "Senior bank loan officers' expectations for loan demand: Evidence from the Euro-area," MPRA Paper 98903, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Dimitrios Anastasiou & Stelios Giannoulakis, 2021. "Are firms' expectations on the availability of external finance rational, adaptive or regressive?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 49(5), pages 833-849, June.

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