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The relevance of unanticipated money growth in explaining output variation

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  • Steven Hine
  • Charles. Bischoff

Abstract

This paper tests a reduced form equation in which real GNP for the United States is explained by deviations of multi-period M1 growth rates from ex ante expectations of those rates formed from one to eight quarters earlier. The theoretical model is suggested by Stanley Fischer's 1977 article, and may be thought of as a 'New Keynesian' model. The equations are tested in both level and first difference specifications, to allow for possible unit roots. Empirical results strongly support this model in preference to 'New Classical' and 'Keynesian' alternatives. Ex ante expectations or M1 growth are formed from multi-period forecasts made by Chase Econometrics, Inc., between 1970 and 1979.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven Hine & Charles. Bischoff, 1998. "The relevance of unanticipated money growth in explaining output variation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(9), pages 1127-1136.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:30:y:1998:i:9:p:1127-1136
    DOI: 10.1080/000368498325020
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    Cited by:

    1. W D A Bryant, 2009. "General Equilibrium:Theory and Evidence," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 6875, August.
    2. Paul Oslington, 2012. "General Equilibrium: Theory and Evidence," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(282), pages 446-448, September.

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