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Skewness Term-Structure Tests

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  • Thorsten Lehnert
  • Yuehao Lin

Abstract

In this paper, we conduct skewness term-structure tests to check whether the temporal structure of risk-neutral skewness is consistent with rational expectations. Because risk-neutral skewness is substantially mean reverting, skewness shocks should decay quickly and risk-neutral skewness of more distant option should display the rationally expected smoothing behaviour. Using an equilibrium asset and option-pricing model in a production economy under jump diffusion with stochastic jump intensity, we derive this elasticity analytically. In an empirical application of the model using more than 20 years of data on S&P500 index options, we find that this elasticity turns out to be different than suggested under rational expectations – smaller on the short end (underreaction) and larger on the long end (overreaction) of the ‘skewness curve’.

Suggested Citation

  • Thorsten Lehnert & Yuehao Lin, 2016. "Skewness Term-Structure Tests," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(6), pages 484-504, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apmtfi:v:23:y:2016:i:6:p:484-504
    DOI: 10.1080/1350486X.2017.1310624
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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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