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Short Positions, Rally Fears and Option Markets


  • Ernst Eberlein
  • Dilip Madan


Index option pricing on world market indices are investigated using Levy processes with no positive jumps. Economically this is motivated by the possible absence of longer horizon short positions while mathematically we are able to evaluate for such processes the probability of a rally before a crash. Three models are used to effectively calibrate index options at an annual maturity, and it is observed that positive jumps may be needed for FTSE, N225 and HSI. Rally before a crash probabilities are shown to have fallen by 10 points after July 2007. Typical implied volatility curves for such models are also described and illustrated. They have smirks and never smile.

Suggested Citation

  • Ernst Eberlein & Dilip Madan, 2010. "Short Positions, Rally Fears and Option Markets," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 83-98.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apmtfi:v:17:y:2010:i:1:p:83-98 DOI: 10.1080/13504860903075688

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Goldman, M Barry & Sosin, Howard B & Gatto, Mary Ann, 1979. "Path Dependent Options: "Buy at the Low, Sell at the High"," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(5), pages 1111-1127, December.
    2. Peter Buchen & Otto Konstandatos, 2005. "A New Method Of Pricing Lookback Options," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 245-259.
    3. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Harrison, J. Michael & Pliska, Stanley R., 1981. "Martingales and stochastic integrals in the theory of continuous trading," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 215-260, August.
    5. Peter Buchen, 2004. "The pricing of dual-expiry exotics," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 101-108.
    6. Hélyette Geman & Marc Yor, 1996. "Pricing And Hedging Double-Barrier Options: A Probabilistic Approach," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 365-378.
    7. Hans-Peter Bermin & Peter Buchen & Otto Konstandatos, 2008. "Two Exotic Lookback Options," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 387-402.
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