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Purchasing power parity, nonlinearity and chaos


  • Apostolos Serletis
  • Periklis Gogas


This study contrasts the (apparent) random walk behaviour of the real exchange rate to chaotic dynamics, using (US) dollar-based real exchange rates for 17 OECD countries (covering the period 1957:1-1995:4). Tests for deterministic noisy chaos are carried out using the Nychka, Ellner, Gallant and McCaffrey (1992) test for positivity of the maximum Lyapunov exponent. There is evidence of nonlinear chaotic dynamics in seven real exchange rate series, suggesting that real exchange rate movements might not be really random.

Suggested Citation

  • Apostolos Serletis & Periklis Gogas, 2000. "Purchasing power parity, nonlinearity and chaos," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(6), pages 615-622.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:10:y:2000:i:6:p:615-622 DOI: 10.1080/096031000437962

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Andrew Clare & Raymond O'Brien & Stephen Thomas & Michael Wickens, "undated". "Macroeconomic Shocks and the Domestic CAPM: Evidence from the UK Stock Market," Discussion Papers 94/10, Department of Economics, University of York.
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    5. Engel, Charles & Rodrigues, Anthony P, 1989. "Tests of International CAPM with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 119-138, April-Jun.
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    Cited by:

    1. Philip Shively, 2003. "Threshold stationary real exchange rates: a nonlinear, multivariate approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(2), pages 1-11.
    2. Musselwhite, Gary & Herath, Gamini, 2007. "Chaos theory and assessment of forest stakeholder attitudes towards Australian forest policy," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(8), pages 947-964, May.
    3. Chang, Tsangyao & Tzeng, Han-Wen, 2011. "Long-run purchasing power parity with asymmetric adjustment: Further evidence from nine transition countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1383-1391, May.
    4. Ata Assaf, 2006. "Nonlinear Trend Stationarity in Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from Nonlinear ADF tests," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 7(2), pages 283-294, November.
    5. Airaudo, Marco & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2012. "Interest rate rules, endogenous cycles, and chaotic dynamics in open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1566-1584.
    6. Serletis, Apostolos & Gogas, Periklis, 2004. "Long-horizon regression tests of the theory of purchasing power parity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1961-1985, August.
    7. Yang-Cheng Lu & Chang, Tsangyao & Chin-Ping Yu, 2011. "Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity with Asymmetric Adjustment: Evidence from Mainland China and Taiwan," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 59-70, September.
    8. Tsangyao Chang & Wen-Chi Liu, 2010. "Long-run purchasing power parity with asymmetric adjustment: evidence from nine major oil-exporting countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 263-274.
    9. Petre CARAIANI, 2015. "Testing For Nonlinearity In Unemployment Rates Via Delay Vector Variance," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 81-92, March.
    10. Mark J.Holmes, 2002. "Are there non linearities in US: Latin American real exchange behavior," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 29(2 Year 20), pages 177-190, December.
    11. Tsangyao Chang & Hsu-Ling Chang & Hsiao-Ping Chu & Chi-Wei Su, 2006. "Does PPP hold in African countries? Further evidence based on a highly dynamic non-linear (logistic) unit root test," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(20), pages 2453-2459.
    12. Holmes, Mark J. & Maghrebi, Nabil, 2004. "Asian real interest rates, nonlinear dynamics, and international parity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 387-405.
    13. Ahmed Asseery, 2005. "Evidence of non-linearities in the bilateral real exchange rates of the British pound," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 63-90.
    14. Ata Assaf, 2004. "Rescaled variance analysis of real exchange rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 303-306.
    15. Webel, Karsten, 2012. "Chaos in German stock returns — New evidence from the 0–1 test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 487-489.
    16. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2003:i:2:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Álvarez-Díaz, Marcos & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Gupta, Rangan, 2014. "Detecting predictable non-linear dynamics in Dow Jones Islamic Market and Dow Jones Industrial Average indices using nonparametric regressions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 22-35.
    18. Assaf, Ata, 2008. "Nonstationarity in real exchange rates using unit root tests with a level shift at unknown time," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 269-278.
    19. Shu-Chen Chang, 2008. "Asymmetric cointegration relationship among Asian exchange rates," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 125-141, June.
    20. Chang, Tsangyao & Lee, Chia-Hao & Chou, Pei-I & Tang, Dai-Piao, 2011. "Revisiting long-run purchasing power parity with asymmetric adjustment for G-7 countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 259-264.
    21. Chi-Wei Su, 2009. "An empirical study of Taiwan's bond market based on the nonlinear dynamic model," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(7), pages 563-574.
    22. Mark Holmes & Ping Wang, 2006. "Asymmetric adjustment towards long-run PPP: Some new evidence for Asian economies," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 161-177.

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