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A logit model of the incidence of long-term unemployment


  • James Obben
  • Hans-Jurgen Engelbrecht
  • V. Wesley Thompson


A logit model of the incidence of long-term unemployment is estimated using a random sample of completed unemployment spells in New Zealand over the period 1988-97. The regressions results are sensible, but the predictive power of the model seems to depend on the share of long-term unemployed in total unemployment. In particular, if one-third or less of annual observations are made up of long-term unemployment spells, the model is incapable of predicting any such spells, unless it is constrained to do so.

Suggested Citation

  • James Obben & Hans-Jurgen Engelbrecht & V. Wesley Thompson, 2002. "A logit model of the incidence of long-term unemployment," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 43-46.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:9:y:2002:i:1:p:43-46
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850110046840

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    1. repec:rsr:journl:v:65:y:2017:i:4:p:141-152 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Kelly, Elish & McGuinness, Seamus & O'Connell, Philip J., 2011. "Transitions to Long-Term Unemployment Risk Among Young People: Evidence from Ireland," Papers WP394, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

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