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A logit model of the incidence of long-term unemployment

  • James Obben
  • Hans-Jurgen Engelbrecht
  • V. Wesley Thompson

A logit model of the incidence of long-term unemployment is estimated using a random sample of completed unemployment spells in New Zealand over the period 1988-97. The regressions results are sensible, but the predictive power of the model seems to depend on the share of long-term unemployed in total unemployment. In particular, if one-third or less of annual observations are made up of long-term unemployment spells, the model is incapable of predicting any such spells, unless it is constrained to do so.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 9 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 43-46

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:9:y:2002:i:1:p:43-46
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