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Instability in trade flows as a cause of economic stagnation in Africa: an error-correction test

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  • Muhammed Islam

Abstract

This paper identifies export instability as an additional cause of changes in GDP. Instability is measured by deviations of exports from their trend values. A multivariate error-correction model that incorporates export instability is tested on individual time series data (1967-1990) for twenty-one African countries. The results indicate reduction in export-earnings but not any significant decline in GDP growth due to instability. Half of these countries experienced export-to-growth causality, with a reverse causality in three-fourths of them. The results are sensitive to both the omission of variables and the test procedure used.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammed Islam, 1996. "Instability in trade flows as a cause of economic stagnation in Africa: an error-correction test," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(5), pages 359-364.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:3:y:1996:i:5:p:359-364
    DOI: 10.1080/135048596356519
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    Cited by:

    1. David E. Bloom & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "Geography, Demography, and Economic Growth in Africa," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 207-296.

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