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Business cycle asymmetry: evidence from Japan’s decade-long deflation

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  • Satoshi Urasawa

Abstract

This paper empirically examines the asymmetric behaviour of macroeconomic time series under different economic regimes, focusing especially on whether the economy is in a deflationary or non-deflationary regime, using a threshold vector autoregression model (TVAR). The results provide evidence in favour of asymmetric spillover effects from demand shocks on economic variables such as wages and consumption. In contrast to the non-deflationary period, during the deflationary period demand shocks are not clearly transmitted to the economy overall due mainly to the rigidity of nominal wages. The findings highlight that the state of the economy also matters when we consider the nature of the business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Satoshi Urasawa, 2020. "Business cycle asymmetry: evidence from Japan’s decade-long deflation," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(21), pages 1711-1717, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:27:y:2020:i:21:p:1711-1717
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2020.1715335
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