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Candidate quality and US Senate elections

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  • Christopher Duquette
  • Franklin G. Mixon
  • Richard J. Cebula

Abstract

We find that candidate quality is a key determinant of US Senate election outcomes. We model the results for the last 10 US Senate election cycles, from 2012 back to 1994, for a total of 345 election contests. For the contests where an incumbent seeks re-election, a quality challenger can significantly diminish the advantage that usually attaches to incumbency. For the open-seat contests, which tend to be more competitive, candidate quality can swing a close election. Governors who seek election to the US Senate receive the largest boost, as indicated by our candidate-quality variables vector. Wave effects and presidential coattail effects are also shown to be contributing factors in certain cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Duquette & Franklin G. Mixon & Richard J. Cebula, 2017. "Candidate quality and US Senate elections," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 193-197, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:24:y:2017:i:3:p:193-197
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2016.1176107
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