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Currency crises, uncertain fundamentals and private-sector forecasts

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  • Jan-Christoph Rülke
  • Christian Pierdzioch

Abstract

The cross-sectional dispersion of private-sector forecasts has been used in recent research on currency crises as a measure of uncertainty over expected fundamentals. We argue that the cross-sectional dispersion of private-sector forecasts need not only reflect uncertainty over expected fundamentals but may also arise due to a deliberate scattering of forecasts. Using data on foreign exchange (FX) reserve forecasts for 11 South-American and Eastern-European countries, we report evidence of such a forecast scattering that seems more pronounced during the economic crisis of 2008/09.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan-Christoph Rülke & Christian Pierdzioch, 2013. "Currency crises, uncertain fundamentals and private-sector forecasts," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(5), pages 489-494, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:20:y:2013:i:5:p:489-494
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2012.716149
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    Cited by:

    1. Frederik Kunze, 2020. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 313-333, March.
    2. Kunze, Frederik, 2017. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 326, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.

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