Examining the relationships between revenues and their components and expenditures and their components using Markov-Switching regressions. Evidence from the municipality of Coimbra (1557–1836)

The present work aims to evaluate quantitatively the relationships between revenues and their components and expenditures and their components in the Municipality of Coimbra during the Early Modern era (1557–1836), according to the revenue and expenditure books of the Municipality of Coimbra. To examine the proposed relationships, we apply the Markov-Switching regression techniques. It is shown that the Markov-Switching analysis allows a different perception of changing regimes in municipal accounting. The analysis reveals that most accounting components had a significant impact on revenues and expenditures in the short and long term. It is argued that the lack of technological innovation that occurred at the level of accounting recording technologies had no impact on the evolution of revenue, expenditure, and its components. Our empirical results are important to motivate the debate on accounting methods, highlighting the importance of long-term dynamic analysis as opposed to short-term static views.