From opportunity to strategy: future scenarios for Nigeria–EU science, technology, and innovation collaboration

Science, Technology, and Innovation (STI) have become central to international partnerships in the knowledge economy, particularly in addressing shared development challenges. Within this context, collaboration between Nigeria and the European Union (EU) presents important opportunities for strengthening research cooperation, innovation ecosystems, and technological development. Yet, despite growing policy momentum and expanding scientific engagement, this cooperation remains uneven and often fragmented across institutions, sectors, and funding mechanisms. This paper examines the future trajectory of Nigeria–EU STI collaboration through an integrated analytical framework combining bibliometric analysis, qualitative content analysis, PEST analysis, and scenario planning. Drawing on evidence from 8,468 Nigeria–EU co-authored publications published between 2020 and 2025, the study identifies the main thematic areas of cooperation and the key political, economic, social, and technological drivers shaping the partnership. Based on these drivers, three plausible future scenarios for collaboration by 2040 are developed: Green–Digital Leap, Uneven Pathways, and Drifting Apart. The findings show that Nigeria–EU STI cooperation has a strong foundation in public health, climate and sustainability, governance, education, and emerging digital fields, but its long-term effectiveness will depend on stronger political commitment, more stable and diversified funding, improved institutional and technological capacity, and broader participation across the innovation system. The paper concludes that a more strategic, inclusive, and challenge-oriented partnership could transform Nigeria–EU STI cooperation from fragmented project-based engagement into a resilient framework for co-innovation, capable of advancing sustainable development, green transition, and digital transformation by 2040.