Cultural influences on the economy under conditions of uncertainty

As economic instability grows and the risk of global threats increases – including pandemics, wars, climate crises, and sudden migration flows – conventional indicators of progress, such as gross domestic product (GDP), are increasingly recognised as insufficient to assess socio-economic development, societal resilience, and a country’s capacity to recover from crises. This article highlights the role of culture in evaluating the socio-economic development of European Union member states under conditions of uncertainty. Culture is understood as a factor shaping long-term development trajectories, influencing not only economic outcomes but also institutional quality, social trust, and societies’ ability to adapt to shocks. From a methodological perspective, the article applies criteria for assessing the cultural sector in line with the EU's "Beyond GDP" approach, focusing on cultural employment, the business environment of the cultural sector, and public expenditure on culture across EU countries. These indicators are analysed alongside levels of trust in public institutions and the Human Development Index (HDI), as well as their correlations, to identify key factors that may significantly impact societal resilience, sustainability, and long-term growth. Using descriptive and comparative methods, the study seeks to identify recurring patterns and structural imbalances across countries, particularly when high GDP levels are not reflected in social well-being or national stability. The empirical findings suggest that cultural indicators are more closely associated with long-term development outcomes than with short-term economic performance. The results indicate that the vitality of the cultural sector and consistent public support contribute to strengthening social cohesion and resilience, while their impact on economic growth is indirect and materialises through longer-term institutional and value-based transformations. The article concludes that culture should be regarded as a strategic resource for long-term development rather than a secondary component of economic policy, especially in contexts of global crisis and uncertainty.