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Noch tragbar? Versuch einer konsolidierten Erfassung der Eurorettungsrisiken


  • Markus Kerber


The overall risk to be borne by Germany in case of further bailouts financed through the EFSF and ESM remains an intriguing question. The German Constitutional Court’s preliminary ruling on 12 September 2012, capping Germany’s ESM risk exposure at €190 billion, has not rendered further examination of the topic irrelevant. Indeed, Germany’s aggravated risk exposure bomb continues to tick, because EFSF funds have already been promised as guarantees for ailing states and they will continue to be used thusly. The article quantifies these risks, in addition to the Target II risk exposure, to confront the Constitutional Court with facts that it — consciously or unconsciously — ignored in its aforementioned ruling. If the Court had been more diligent or more open to financial expertise, the worst-case scenario of a near doubling of German public debt (from about €2 trillion to €3.7 trillion) makes it hard to understand how the Court could have considered such risk compatible with its own postulate of sustained fiscal democracy. Copyright ZBW and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Kerber, 2012. "Noch tragbar? Versuch einer konsolidierten Erfassung der Eurorettungsrisiken," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;German National Library of Economics, vol. 92(11), pages 737-745, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:wirtsc:v:92:y:2012:i:11:p:737-745
    DOI: 10.1007/s10273-012-1448-2

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2011. "Target-Kredite, Leistungsbilanzsalden und Kapitalverkehr: Der Rettungsschirm der EZB," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64, pages 01-29, June.
    2. Monticelli, Carlo, 1999. "The target mechanism: will it propagate or stifle a stage III crisis? : A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 221-228, December.
    3. Garber, Peter M., 1999. "The target mechanism: Will it propagate or stifle a stage III crisis?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 195-220, December.
    4. Ulrich Bindseil & Philipp Johann König, 2011. "The economics of TARGET2 balances," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-035, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
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    More about this item


    K00; H60; H74;

    JEL classification:

    • K00 - Law and Economics - - General - - - General (including Data Sources and Description)
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • H74 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Borrowing


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