IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v39y2025i9d10.1007_s11269-025-04173-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Valley Dam Optimization Framework to Reduce Water-induced Conflict in Migratory Communities

Author

Listed:
  • Felix Obunguta

    (Osaka University)

  • Kiyoyuki Kaito

    (Osaka University)

  • Kiyoshi Kobayashi

    (Kyoto University)

Abstract

Effective management of valley dams, crucial for sustaining water resources for migratory communities, necessitates strategic planning to harmonize maintenance with intermittent usage patterns to reduce water-induced conflict risk. This paper presents a valley dam optimization framework aimed at preserving dam integrity while efficiently allocating scarce water resources. A gravity model was employed to quantify water-related migration and to identify high risk conflict areas. The proposed framework enables evaluation of dam improvement works and water supply effects including migrant flow that creates clash points. An example application in Karamoja-Turkana in East Africa provided water management insights for migratory populations. The model application results showed that it is optimal and more beneficial to prioritize dam management based on water resources rather than population as the former had lower costs and achieved zero migrant flow (stationarity) earlier, significantly reducing conflict risk. Collaboration with migratory communities in dam planning and monitoring is encouraged to optimize incomplete dam usage and water provision, promoting sustainability and community resilience.

Suggested Citation

  • Felix Obunguta & Kiyoyuki Kaito & Kiyoshi Kobayashi, 2025. "Valley Dam Optimization Framework to Reduce Water-induced Conflict in Migratory Communities," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 39(9), pages 4661-4678, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:39:y:2025:i:9:d:10.1007_s11269-025-04173-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-025-04173-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-025-04173-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-025-04173-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jacques Poot & Omoniyi Alimi & Michael P. Cameron & David C. Maré, 2016. "The gravity model of migration: the successful comeback of an ageing superstar in regional science," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 36, pages 63-86.
    2. Kyle F Davis & Paolo D'Odorico & Francesco Laio & Luca Ridolfi, 2013. "Global Spatio-Temporal Patterns in Human Migration: A Complex Network Perspective," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(1), pages 1-8, January.
    3. Almer, Christian & Laurent-Lucchetti, Jérémy & Oechslin, Manuel, 2017. "Water scarcity and rioting: Disaggregated evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 193-209.
    4. Jacob D. Petersen-Perlman & Jennifer C. Veilleux & Aaron T. Wolf, 2017. "International water conflict and cooperation: challenges and opportunities," Water International, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 105-120, February.
    5. Sahar Hassan Khayat, 2019. "A gravity model analysis for trade between the GCC and developed countries," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1703440-170, January.
    6. Alan Nicol & Liza Debevec & Samuel Okene Ayaru, 2022. "Water and complex problemsheds in Karamoja, Uganda," Water International, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(6), pages 952-968, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael P. Cameron & Jacques Poot, 2019. "The estimation and interpretation of coefficients in panel gravity models of migration," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 9-15, April.
    2. Honorata Bogusz & Szymon Winnicki & Piotr Wójcik, 2024. "What factors contribute to uneven suburbanisation? Predicting the number of migrants from Warsaw to its suburbs with machine learning," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 72(4), pages 1353-1382, April.
    3. Laville,Camille & Mandon,Pierre Jean-Claude, 2023. "Internal Conflicts and Shocks. A Narrative Meta-Analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10315, The World Bank.
    4. Desbureaux, Sébastien & Rodella, Aude-Sophie, 2019. "Drought in the city: The economic impact of water scarcity in Latin American metropolitan areas," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 13-27.
    5. Aditya Gupta & K. D. Kulat, 2018. "A Selective Literature Review on Leak Management Techniques for Water Distribution System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(10), pages 3247-3269, August.
    6. Yuchao Chen & Yunus A. Kinkhabwala & Boris Barron & Matthew Hall & Tomás A. Arias & Itai Cohen, 2024. "Small-area population forecasting in a segregated city using density-functional fluctuation theory," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 2255-2275, December.
    7. Parker Elliott, 2020. "Migration Patterns in Eastern Europe and the World: A Gravity Approach," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 15(1), pages 66-79, June.
    8. Francisco Francisco & Jennifer Leijon & Cecilia Boström & Jens Engström & Jan Sundberg, 2018. "Wave Power as Solution for Off-Grid Water Desalination Systems: Resource Characterization for Kilifi-Kenya," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-14, April.
    9. Aldeco Leo Lorenzo Rodrigo & Jurado Jose A. & Ramírez-Álvarez Aurora A., 2022. "Internal Migration and Drug Violence in Mexico," Working Papers 2022-11, Banco de México.
    10. Aksoy, Ozan & Yıldırım, Sinan, 2020. "A model of dynamic migration networks: Explaining Turkey's inter-provincial migration flows," SocArXiv rf724, Center for Open Science.
    11. Yang Cheng & Yuxia Lv & Mark Rosenberg & Linke Hou, 2018. "Decision Making of Non-Agricultural Work by Rural Residents in Weifang, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-15, May.
    12. D. Woods & A. Cunningham & C. E. Utazi & M. Bondarenko & L. Shengjie & G. E. Rogers & P. Koper & C. W. Ruktanonchai & E. zu Erbach-Schoenberg & A. J. Tatem & J. Steele & A. Sorichetta, 2022. "Exploring methods for mapping seasonal population changes using mobile phone data," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-17, December.
    13. Omid Bozorg-Haddad & Mahdi Bahrami & Ayda Gholami & Xuefeng Chu & Hugo A. Loáiciga, 2024. "Investigation and classification of water resources management strategies: possible threats and solutions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(11), pages 9867-9892, September.
    14. Unfried, Kerstin & Kis-Katos, Krisztina & Poser, Tilman, 2022. "Water scarcity and social conflict," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    15. Rosmaiza Abdul Ghani & Michael P. Cameron & William Cochrane & Matthew Roskruge, 2020. "The Causal Impact of Trade on Migration: A Gravity Model Estimation," Working Papers in Economics 20/01, University of Waikato.
    16. Alfred Stiglbauer, 2020. "EU-Mitgliedschaft, EU-Erweiterung und die Auswirkungen auf den österreichischen Arbeitsmarkt," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1-Q2/20, pages 75-88.
    17. Morellini, Micol Matilde, 2025. "A Simulation Approach for the Spatial Testing of Migration Theories," OSF Preprints 98d2a_v1, Center for Open Science.
    18. Michael P. Cameron, 2017. "Climate Change, Internal Migration and the Future Spatial Distribution of Population: A Case Study of New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 17/03, University of Waikato.
    19. Federica Cappelli & Caterina Conigliani & Davide Consoli & Valeria Costantini & Elena Paglialunga, 2023. "Climate change and armed conflicts in Africa: temporal persistence, non-linear climate impact and geographical spillovers," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 40(2), pages 517-560, July.
    20. Arthur Grimes & Shaan Badenhorst & David C. Maré & Jacques Poot, 2020. "Hometown wh?nau or big city millennials? The economic geography of graduate destination choices in New Zealand," Motu Working Papers 20_04, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:39:y:2025:i:9:d:10.1007_s11269-025-04173-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.