Quantifying the Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Change Scenarios on Water-Related Ecosystem Services

This study explores how changes in landscape structure affect water-related ecosystem services in the Anzali wetland catchment in Iran. We first generated land use and land cover (LULC) maps for the years 2000, 2010 and 2020. Five LULC classes were identified including farmlands, forests, pastures, water surfaces, and urban areas. Using a land change modeler, we projected the LULC changes for the year 2050 under business-as-usual, economic, and ecological scenarios. To simulate water-related ecosystem services, we used the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) and the Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT). Finally, we compared the results of the different scenarios and selected the optimal scenario that would maximize the provision of the targeted ecosystem services. Results showed, between 2000 and 2020, the study area experienced a loss of 25,050 ha of forest and a gain of 23,630 ha of farmland. Under the BAU and economic scenarios, forest loss is projected to be 30,570 ha and 43,570 ha with farmland gains of 30,310 ha and 36,640 ha, whereas the ecological scenario indicates a reversal with a projected 63,360 ha of forest gain and 70,330 ha of farmland loss. Our results indicated that, under the business-as-usual and economic scenarios LULC changes had negative impacts on water-related ecosystem services. However, the ecological scenario showed a promising future leading to improvements in water-related ecosystem services. Our study suggests that a holistic approach, one that considers the trade-offs and synergies among different ecosystem services, is needed to ensure sustainable LULC management.