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Forecasting 21st Century Hydrological Challenges in Arid Regions: Climate-induced Shifts in Runoff and Evapotranspiration

Author

Listed:
  • Sajjad Hussain

    (King Abdulaziz University)

  • Burhan Niyazi

    (King Abdulaziz University)

  • Amro Elfeki

    (King Abdulaziz University
    Mansoura University)

  • Milad Masoud

    (King Abdulaziz University
    Hydrology Department, Desert Research Centre)

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the impact of climate change on runoff and potential evapotranspiration (PET) of Wadi Aqul, Saudi Arabia, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). A novel farmwork was developed to generate hydrological multi-model ensemble from multiple General Circulation Models (GCMs) with the integration of hydrological model (SWAT). The performance of SWAT was promising on both daily and monthly scales (rcalib > 0.85, rvalid > 0.75). Climate change impacts were assessed over baseline (1979–2010) and future periods (near future, Q1: 2026–2050, mid future, Q2: 2051–2075, and far future, Q3: 2076–2100). The baseline period indicated a slight, non-significant decline in runoff, while future projections revealed variation: under moderate emission (SSP4.5), runoff decreased slightly in Q1 and Q2 but increased by 60% in Q3. Conversely, the high emission (SSP8.5) scenario showed consistent runoff increase across all quarters (Q1 = 15.9%, Q2 = 13.6%, and Q3 = 48.8%). The Modified Men-Kendell (mMK) trend analysis indicated significant positive trends under SSP8.5, especially in Q3 (Zc = 5.6, Tau = 0.30). Similarly, PET have showed rise under both scenarios, with SSP8.5 exhibiting higher increases (14.5–22.5% across Q1 and Q2) compared to SSP4.5 (7.6–10.6%). Trend analysis of PET revealed significant increases (p

Suggested Citation

  • Sajjad Hussain & Burhan Niyazi & Amro Elfeki & Milad Masoud, 2025. "Forecasting 21st Century Hydrological Challenges in Arid Regions: Climate-induced Shifts in Runoff and Evapotranspiration," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 39(11), pages 5719-5749, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:39:y:2025:i:11:d:10.1007_s11269-025-04225-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-025-04225-3
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