Modelling & Assessment of the Impact of Water Network Construction on Mitigating Regional Water Supply–Demand Conflicts: Strategies Approaches for Water Resources Planning and Management

The role of water networks in the water resources supply and demand balance (WRSDB) system is pivotal, yet the quantification of their potential impacts remains insufficiently addressed. In this study, a hierarchical indicator system was innovatively designed across four dimensions for the intuitive assessment of the water supply and demand relationship. Employing a dual-phase coordination-equilibrium evaluation framework, the study integrated a two-step supply and demand analysis with socio-economic projections, and performed modelling and assessment under envisioned water network layouts for 2020, 2025, and 2035. An empirical analysis was conducted on 122 counties in Hunan Province, China. The results show that: (1) Significant reductions observed in the provincial water deficit rate, anticipated to decrease to 0.75% by 2025 and 0.46% by 2035, relative to 2020. (2) Improvements in the coupling coordination degree (CCD) were noted, from a transformation to coordinated development stage. (3) Spatial analyses revealed a logarithmic growth trend in the water resource spatial equilibrium index (WRSEI), which increased from southwest to northeast. (4) A policy roadmap was formulated, targeting at potential obstacles and outlining mitigation strategies for subregions. The strategic approaches offer novel insights into water network planning and operational adjustments, aimed at mitigating future water supply–demand conflicts across similar regions globally.