IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v38y2024i2d10.1007_s11269-023-03679-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the Effect of Future Climate Change on Drought Characteristics and Propagation from Meteorological to Hydrological Droughts—A Comparison of Three Indices

Author

Listed:
  • Kashish Sadhwani

    (Indian Institute of Technology Bombay)

  • T. I. Eldho

    (Indian Institute of Technology Bombay
    Indian Institute of Technology Bombay)

Abstract

This study delves into the potential impacts of climate change on meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Western Ghats region of South India, a large and humid tropical region. Utilizing three drought indices—the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), we assessed the historical drought patterns and projected future scenarios under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (4.5 and 8.5). This comprehensive analysis encompassed three future time segments (near: 2021–2040, mid: 2041–2070, far: 2071–2100) and compared results with a base period (1989–2018). The study demonstrated that drought propagation is notably faster (around 3 months) in wet, humid tropical regions, highlighting the urgency of understanding its dynamics. Furthermore, the findings indicate that droughts are expected to increase in count and severity (> 100%) in the Western Ghats in future, accompanied by an accelerated propagation rate (around 2 months), with recovery rates for hydrological droughts being notably swift in this region. The study emphasizes the significant influence of regional conditions on drought propagation, leading to variations in its characteristics. Additionally, it underscores the potential of Pearson correlation analysis in providing approximate results for estimating drought propagation periods in the wet, humid tropical regions. These findings are significant in formulating effective risk mitigation and adaptation strategies to address the mounting challenges posed by drought in this region.

Suggested Citation

  • Kashish Sadhwani & T. I. Eldho, 2024. "Assessing the Effect of Future Climate Change on Drought Characteristics and Propagation from Meteorological to Hydrological Droughts—A Comparison of Three Indices," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(2), pages 441-462, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:38:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s11269-023-03679-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-023-03679-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-023-03679-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-023-03679-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Srimanta Ghosh & K. Srinivasan, 2016. "Analysis of Spatio-temporal Characteristics and Regional Frequency of Droughts in the Southern Peninsula of India," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(11), pages 3879-3898, September.
    2. Gauranshi Raj Singh & Manoj Kumar Jain & Vivek Gupta, 2019. "Spatiotemporal assessment of drought hazard, vulnerability and risk in the Krishna River basin, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(2), pages 611-635, November.
    3. Desalegn Edossa & Mukand Babel & Ashim Das Gupta, 2010. "Drought Analysis in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(7), pages 1441-1460, May.
    4. Muh Taufik & Paul J. J. F. Torfs & Remko Uijlenhoet & Philip D. Jones & Daniel Murdiyarso & Henny A. J. Van Lanen, 2017. "Amplification of wildfire area burnt by hydrological drought in the humid tropics," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(6), pages 428-431, June.
    5. Dan Li & Bingjun Liu & Changqing Ye, 2022. "Meteorological and hydrological drought risks under changing environment on the Wanquan River Basin, Southern China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(3), pages 2941-2967, December.
    6. U. Surendran & B. Anagha & P. Raja & V. Kumar & K. Rajan & M. Jayakumar, 2019. "Analysis of Drought from Humid, Semi-Arid and Arid Regions of India Using DrinC Model with Different Drought Indices," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(4), pages 1521-1540, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jale Amanuel Dufera & Tewodros Addisu Yate & Tadesse Tujuba Kenea, 2023. "Spatiotemporal analysis of drought in Oromia regional state of Ethiopia over the period 1989 to 2019," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(2), pages 1569-1609, June.
    2. Ashenafi Yimam Kassaye & Guangcheng Shao & Xiaojun Wang & Shiqing Wu, 2021. "Quantification of drought severity change in Ethiopia during 1952–2017," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 5096-5121, April.
    3. Dimitrios Myronidis & Konstantinos Ioannou & Dimitrios Fotakis & Gerald Dörflinger, 2018. "Streamflow and Hydrological Drought Trend Analysis and Forecasting in Cyprus," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1759-1776, March.
    4. Tazen Fowé & Roland Yonaba & Lawani Adjadi Mounirou & Etienne Ouédraogo & Boubacar Ibrahim & Dial Niang & Harouna Karambiri & Hamma Yacouba, 2023. "From meteorological to hydrological drought: a case study using standardized indices in the Nakanbe River Basin, Burkina Faso," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 119(3), pages 1941-1965, December.
    5. Abdol Rassoul Zarei & Mohammad Reza Mahmoudi, 2022. "Assessing and Predicting the Vulnerability to Agrometeorological Drought Using the Fuzzy-AHP and Second-order Markov Chain techniques," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(11), pages 4403-4424, September.
    6. Muhammad Nouman Sattar & Jin-Young Lee & Ji-Yae Shin & Tae-Woong Kim, 2019. "Probabilistic Characteristics of Drought Propagation from Meteorological to Hydrological Drought in South Korea," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(7), pages 2439-2452, May.
    7. Samane Saadat & Davar Khalili & Ali Kamgar-Haghighi & Shahrokh Zand-Parsa, 2013. "Investigation of spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal streamflow droughts in a semi-arid region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(3), pages 1697-1720, December.
    8. Muhammad Jehanzaib & Sabab Ali Shah & Ji Eun Kim & Tae-Woong Kim, 2023. "Exploring spatio-temporal variation of drought characteristics and propagation under climate change using multi-model ensemble projections," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(3), pages 2483-2503, February.
    9. Alireza Shokoohi & Reza Morovati, 2015. "Basinwide Comparison of RDI and SPI Within an IWRM Framework," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(6), pages 2011-2026, April.
    10. Divya Saini & Omvir Singh & Tejpal Sharma & Pankaj Bhardwaj, 2022. "Geoinformatics and analytic hierarchy process based drought vulnerability assessment over a dryland ecosystem of north-western India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(2), pages 1427-1454, November.
    11. Abdol Rassoul Zarei & Mohammad Reza Mahmoudi, 2020. "Ability Assessment of the Stationary and Cyclostationary Time Series Models to Predict Drought Indices," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(15), pages 5009-5029, December.
    12. Ali Tabrizi & Davar Khalili & Ali Kamgar-Haghighi & Shahrokh Zand-Parsa, 2010. "Utilization of Time-Based Meteorological Droughts to Investigate Occurrence of Streamflow Droughts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(15), pages 4287-4306, December.
    13. Emre Topçu, 2022. "Appraisal of seasonal drought characteristics in Turkey during 1925–2016 with the standardized precipitation index and copula approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(1), pages 697-723, May.
    14. Farshad Ahmadi & Saeid Mehdizadeh & Babak Mohammadi, 2021. "Development of Bio-Inspired- and Wavelet-Based Hybrid Models for Reconnaissance Drought Index Modeling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(12), pages 4127-4147, September.
    15. Kumar Amrit & Rajendra P. Pandey & Surendra K. Mishra, 2018. "Characteristics of meteorological droughts in northwestern India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 94(2), pages 561-582, November.
    16. Panagiotis Angelidis & Fotios Maris & Nikos Kotsovinos & Vlassios Hrissanthou, 2012. "Computation of Drought Index SPI with Alternative Distribution Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(9), pages 2453-2473, July.
    17. Harris Vangelis & Mike Spiliotis & George Tsakiris, 2011. "Drought Severity Assessment Based on Bivariate Probability Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(1), pages 357-371, January.
    18. Michael Nones & Hossein Hamidifar & Seyed Mohammad Bagher Shahabi-Haghighi, 2024. "Exploring EM-DAT for depicting spatiotemporal trends of drought and wildfires and their connections with anthropogenic pressure," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(1), pages 957-973, January.
    19. U. Surendran & C. M. Sushanth & E. J. Joseph & Nadhir Al-Ansari & Zaher Mundher Yaseen, 2019. "FAO CROPWAT Model-Based Irrigation Requirements for Coconut to Improve Crop and Water Productivity in Kerala, India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-15, September.
    20. Maurizio Tiepolo & Maurizio Bacci & Sarah Braccio & Stefano Bechis, 2019. "Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment at Community Level Integrating Local and Scientific Knowledge in the Hodh Chargui, Mauritania," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-23, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:38:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s11269-023-03679-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.