IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v31y2017i11d10.1007_s11269-017-1676-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimation and Assessment of Temporal Stability of Periodicities of Droughts in Iran

Author

Listed:
  • Hojatollah Daneshmand

    (University of Sistan and Baluchestan)

  • Peyman Mahmoudi

    (University of Sistan and Baluchestan)

Abstract

The main objective of the present study was to identify the periodic behavior of monthly droughts in Iran. For this purpose, monthly precipitation data obtained from 41 synoptic stations for a period of 22 years (1992–2013) were used. To identify the frequency of different severities of drought, effective drought index (EDI) was calculated at monthly scale and then spectral analysis of time series of EDI was conducted for each station. Temporal stability of these periods was also estimated using the wavelet transform. The results of spectral analysis of monthly droughts in Iran showed that periodicities in time series of Iran’s droughts are very diverse and involve periods of 2 to 22 years. Assessment of temporal stability of periodicities using the wavelet transform also indicated that there is a dominant periodic interval (significant at a level of α = 0.1) only in 8 stations of Ardebil, Iranshahr, Zahedan, Bandar Lengeh, Shahroud, Khorramabad, Oroomieh, and Shahre Kord. Studying the variability of time series of EDI in 41 stations showed that the severity of wet years is declining and the severity of droughts is increasing. It was also observed that periodic intervals were shorter at the beginning but longer at the end of time series. This suggests that the probability of incidence of drought in Iran is increasing. Additionally, a reduction can be observed in interval between incidences of droughts in Iran. This means that the interval between occurrence of droughts were longer at the beginning and then shorter at the end of times series.

Suggested Citation

  • Hojatollah Daneshmand & Peyman Mahmoudi, 2017. "Estimation and Assessment of Temporal Stability of Periodicities of Droughts in Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(11), pages 3413-3426, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:31:y:2017:i:11:d:10.1007_s11269-017-1676-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-017-1676-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-017-1676-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-017-1676-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ana Paulo & Luis Pereira, 2007. "Prediction of SPI Drought Class Transitions Using Markov Chains," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(10), pages 1813-1827, October.
    2. Rafael Carvalho & Colin Woodroffe, 2015. "Rainfall Variability in the Shoalhaven River Catchment and its Relation to Climatic Indices," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(14), pages 4963-4976, November.
    3. Thian Gan, 2000. "Reducing Vulnerability of Water Resources of Canadian Prairies to Potential Droughts and Possible Climatic Warming," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 14(2), pages 111-135, April.
    4. Tayeb Raziei & Bahram Saghafian & Ana Paulo & Luis Pereira & Isabella Bordi, 2009. "Spatial Patterns and Temporal Variability of Drought in Western Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(3), pages 439-455, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. N. Subash & H. Mohan, 2011. "A Simple Rationally Integrated Drought Indicator for Rice–Wheat Productivity," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(10), pages 2425-2447, August.
    2. Tayeb Raziei & Isabella Bordi & Luis Pereira, 2011. "An Application of GPCC and NCEP/NCAR Datasets for Drought Variability Analysis in Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(4), pages 1075-1086, March.
    3. E. Preziosi & A. Bon & E. Romano & A. Petrangeli & S. Casadei, 2013. "Vulnerability to Drought of a Complex Water Supply System. The Upper Tiber Basin Case Study (Central Italy)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(13), pages 4655-4678, October.
    4. Arash Modaresi Rad & Davar Khalili & Ali Akbar Kamgar-Haghighi & Shahrokh Zand-Parsa & Seyed Adib Banimahd, 2016. "Assessment of seasonal characteristics of streamflow droughts under semiarid conditions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(3), pages 1541-1564, July.
    5. Panagiotis Angelidis & Fotios Maris & Nikos Kotsovinos & Vlassios Hrissanthou, 2012. "Computation of Drought Index SPI with Alternative Distribution Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(9), pages 2453-2473, July.
    6. Desalegn Edossa & Mukand Babel & Ashim Das Gupta, 2010. "Drought Analysis in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(7), pages 1441-1460, May.
    7. Xiaqing Feng & Guangxin Zhang & Xiongrui Yin, 2011. "Hydrological Responses to Climate Change in Nenjiang River Basin, Northeastern China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(2), pages 677-689, January.
    8. Javad Bazrafshan & Somayeh Hejabi & Jaber Rahimi, 2014. "Drought Monitoring Using the Multivariate Standardized Precipitation Index (MSPI)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(4), pages 1045-1060, March.
    9. Hossein Tabari & Jaefar Nikbakht & P. Hosseinzadeh Talaee, 2013. "Hydrological Drought Assessment in Northwestern Iran Based on Streamflow Drought Index (SDI)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(1), pages 137-151, January.
    10. Hossein Tabari & Reza Zamani & Hossein Rahmati & Patrick Willems, 2015. "Markov Chains of Different Orders for Streamflow Drought Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(9), pages 3441-3457, July.
    11. Jianzhu Li & Shuhan Zhou & Rong Hu, 2016. "Hydrological Drought Class Transition Using SPI and SRI Time Series by Loglinear Regression," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 669-684, January.
    12. Shahab Araghinejad, 2011. "An Approach for Probabilistic Hydrological Drought Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(1), pages 191-200, January.
    13. Ana Paulo & Luis Pereira, 2008. "Stochastic Prediction of Drought Class Transitions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(9), pages 1277-1296, September.
    14. Seyedeh Mahboobeh Jafari & Mohammad Reza Nikoo & Maryam Dehghani & Mohammadali Alijanian, 2020. "Evaluation of two satellite-based products against ground-based observation for drought analysis in the southern part of Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(3), pages 1249-1267, July.
    15. Tayeb Raziei & Bahram Saghafian & Ana Paulo & Luis Pereira & Isabella Bordi, 2009. "Spatial Patterns and Temporal Variability of Drought in Western Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(3), pages 439-455, February.
    16. Ankur Srivastava & Proloy Deb & Nikul Kumari, 2020. "Multi-Model Approach to Assess the Dynamics of Hydrologic Components in a Tropical Ecosystem," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(1), pages 327-341, January.
    17. Mohammad Mehdi Bateni & Javad Behmanesh & Javad Bazrafshan & Hossein Rezaie & Carlo Michele, 2018. "Simple Short-Term Probabilistic Drought Prediction Using Mediterranean Teleconnection Information," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(13), pages 4345-4358, October.
    18. Lin Dou & Mingbin Huang & Yang Hong, 2009. "Statistical Assessment of the Impact of Conservation Measures on Streamflow Responses in a Watershed of the Loess Plateau, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(10), pages 1935-1949, August.
    19. Yaohuan Huang & Chen Xu & Haijun Yang & Jianhua Wang & Dong Jiang & Chuanpeng Zhao, 2015. "Temporal and Spatial Variability of Droughts in Southwest China from 1961 to 2012," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(10), pages 1-13, October.
    20. Samane Saadat & Davar Khalili & Ali Kamgar-Haghighi & Shahrokh Zand-Parsa, 2013. "Investigation of spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal streamflow droughts in a semi-arid region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(3), pages 1697-1720, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:31:y:2017:i:11:d:10.1007_s11269-017-1676-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.